How Summer Travel Plans Are Being Upended by Fuel Costs — And the Trips That Still Make Sense

Last Thursday, a woman in her late fifties looked at the gas pump at a suburban Maryland gas station off I-95 as if it had insulted her. The standard unleaded read was $4.51. Nevertheless, she filled the tank and got back into a minivan that had cooler bags and what appeared to be a kid’s pool float wedged against the back window. She had a destination in mind. Maybe not where she had intended.

The data has been hinting at something for weeks, and that little scene captures it. This summer, Americans are still traveling, but they are doing so in different ways, and the disparity in who gets to go where is growing in ways that seem novel, or at the very least, more apparent. The average price of regular gas has increased to $4.51 per gallon from $2.98 prior to the disruption of global oil supplies caused by the Iran conflict in late February. Over the same period, jet fuel has increased by about 62%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that airfares in April were 21% more than they were a year ago. This is not subtle at all.

However, roughly 30% of Americans told Bank of America that they would not alter their plans in any way in response to rising fuel prices. Go over that twice. The impact is just being felt by one-third of the nation. The others are recalculating, hedging, and exchanging aspirations for something more manageable, which is what people always do when things change.

The term “good enough” vacation appears frequently in British travel research and seems appropriate. It’s not exactly a compromise. It’s more like a recalibration. Instead of two weeks in Crete, spend a long weekend in Cornwall. Instead of flying to Lisbon, take a road trip to the Outer Banks. Three weeks instead of five months were reserved for a cabin rental. The concept of summer is not being abandoned by people. They’re making it smaller so they can defend it in the event that something goes awry.

The uneven distribution of the pain is striking. This season is K-shaped, according to Bank of America analysts, and the metaphor fits almost too perfectly. Households with lower incomes are more than twice as likely as those with higher incomes to completely forego a summer vacation. Approximately 38% of them informed the bank that they are dra

stically reducing their travel expenditures. In the meantime, when fuel prices began to rise, the households that reserved hotels and flights back in February—many of them flush with larger tax refunds—barely flinched. They made their reservations early, which is now considered a privilege in and of itself.

As expected, the airlines are transferring expenses. The cost of baggage has increased. Timetables have been shortened. This week, the Airports Council International issued a warning that if jet fuel continues to rise, which it appears to be doing, there will probably be more disruptions. WestJet and Air Canada have already cut their routes. Quietly, European carriers are reducing their capacity. If there was ever a summer of $200 transatlantic deals, it is not returning this year.

Here’s what still makes sense, though, and it’s important to state clearly. Driving domestically within four or five hours of home dilutes the higher cost of gas throughout the entire trip. National parks are popular for non-economic reasons. There are train trips, but they don’t humiliate you on time. Weeks that are off-peak, such as late August or early September, are when the numbers are skewed. And the unconventional but suddenly sensible decision to travel to a familiar location where you already know the inexpensive eateries and don’t require a rental car.

According to the travel agents I’ve spoken to, this summer will be remembered more for its subtle substitutions than for its cancellations. People continued to go. They simply stopped traveling as far. It’s unclear at this point whether that turns into a one-year diversion or the beginning of something longer-lasting. Oil, the Middle East, and whether the Federal Reserve achieves the soft landing it has been promising all play a role. The woman with the pool float is currently traveling. That is worth something.